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2021 Oscar Winners as Predicted by their IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes Ratings

Critics have already chosen their nominees for this year’s Oscars, but who are the public’s favourites to take home the famous gold statues? Curious to find out, analysed IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes ratings of the 10 most popular Oscar categories to reveal which movies would win if chosen by the viewers. 

Some of the highlights include:

  • Judas and the Black Messiah is the fan’s favourite to win best picture – with average ratings of 89%
  • Anthony Hopkins would take the prize of best lead actor for his role in The Father (89.1%)
  • Carey Mulligan is the favourite to win best lead actress (84%) for her role in Promising Young Woman, ahead of big stars such as Frances McDormand (Nomandland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
  • Despite being the most diverse Oscars ever, female categories received the lowest overall ratings
  • Best original screenplay and best lead actor are the categories winning the most rave reviews from fans


Which film is the favourite to win each category?

Judas and the Black Messiah is our favourite to win best picture, one of the most prestigious categories at the Oscars. The biographical drama starring Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield has an average rating of 89.3% out of a possible 100%, edging just ahead of The Father (89.1%) which has also been strongly tipped for success.

Despite having two women nominated in the category for the first time in the awards’ 93-year history, the best director prize looks like it could be going to Lee Isaac Chung for his semi-autobiographical film Minari, which notched an average rating of 89% in OnBuy’s combined public reviews index. 

Despite Minari making history this year with Steven Yeun as the first Asian American nominated for best lead actor, according to fans Anthony Hopkins is the more worthy winner for his star turn in The Father – it scored an impressive average rating of 89.1%. 

Carey Mulligan seems to be the public’s favourite to win best lead actress for her role in Promising Young Woman with an average rating of 84%, this nudges her ahead of big stars such as Frances McDormand (Nomandland) with 83.3% and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) who received an average rating of 81.7%.

Which is the highest-rated Oscar category?

When calculating the average rating of films nominated for each category, found that the best original screenplay prize comes in top of the pile with an average score of 87.4%. According to the study, the winner for this category is most likely to be Judas and the Black Messiah.

Following behind in second and third place are the two male categories: best supporting actor (85.8%) and best lead actor (85.1%). 

Surprisingly, given the emphasis placed on encouraging greater diversity in recent years, the two corresponding female categories (best lead actress and best supporting actress) significantly trail the field, coming in last with an average category rating of just 76.9% and 75.6% respectively. 

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